The sixth review of the IPCC could be the last chance to limit global warming to 1.5ºC

The sixth review of the IPCC could be the last chance to limit global warming to 1.5ºC.

• Species loss, droughts, extreme weather events and a long list of other climate impacts are happening sooner than anticipated. Climate inaction puts many species in serious danger, including humans, especially the most vulnerable people.

• The IPCC working groups conclude for the synthesis report that could become the last that includes the possibility of keeping global warming below 1.5ºC.

• The conclusions of IPCC Working Group III clearly indicate the need to reduce emissions more quickly and deeply than current commitments establish.

The working groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conclude their mandate in the sixth assessment process of the global climate situation. This process is an analysis of the main advances in climate science. It is based on three axes. The first, completed in August 2021, on scientific bases. The second, published in February 2022, on impacts and adaptation. And the last one, just published, on emissions reduction policies. These works will be the basis for the final synthesis report scheduled for September 2022, which will be a new confirmation of the current emergency situation and will confirm that “the decisions that societies make now will determine whether our species prospers or simply survives as we the 21st century advances.”

The reality, in the opinion of Ecologistas en Acción, is that these warnings have been of very little use. Global emissions continue to grow year after year. For the organization, not reaching the peak of emissions before 2020 is “a truly historic irresponsibility with serious consequences,” which science has been warning about for years. The World Meteorological Organization warns that there is at least a 40% chance of exceeding a global temperature increase of more than 1.5ºC before 2026, which will lead to the disappearance of important ecosystems and the worsening of meteorological phenomena. extremes.

The first IPCC working group has already warned with great concern that planetary degradation processes are being activated that will accelerate climate change and lead to crossing important points of no return. The recent extreme heat wave suffered in the north of the planet has not only brought health effects or serious forest fires, but has also facilitated the melting of ice and the release of significant quantities of greenhouse gases. Evidence that is not new, nor is it new that the passage of time and inaction are aggravating and accelerating the consequences of climate change.

“Delay in climate action means deaths.” This is how the United Nations assessed the publication in February of the results of the second working group. This establishes that extreme weather events have caused the irreversible loss of many ecosystems. Thus, exceeding the 1.5ºC barrier “would cause inevitable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans.” At least 3.6 billion people live in situations of enormous climate risk. A risk that in turn reproduces the enormous global inequality. This is what the report highlights: “The vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs substantially between and within regions, driven by patterns of socioeconomic development, unsustainable use of oceans and land, inequity, marginalization , historical and current situations of inequality such as colonialism, and governance.”

According to the conclusions of this latest IPCC working group, deeper and faster reductions in greenhouse gases are necessary. The report clearly states that global emissions must peak before 2025 and reach climate neutrality in the third quarter of the century. The most industrialized countries are the ones that must make these reductions with greater effort and speed to avoid exceeding 1.5 ºC. Emissions must be reduced by half in 2030. In addition, the most emitting states, such as Spain, would have to be practically decarbonized before mid-century. To this end, this report includes numerous measures to be developed and reaffirms the need for systemic change as the only way to achieve the rapid reductions required.

This route is only possible through a reduction in net energy consumption and the almost exclusive use of renewable energy sources, for which there are no shortcuts such as carbon capture and storage techniques, which are either unviable or entail enormous risks or are considerably insufficient given the magnitude of the problem. The IPCC points out that the investment efforts necessary for change are between three and six times less than what is necessary. The report states that the investor-state dispute settlement mechanism (ISDS) is a major obstacle to climate mitigation measures. The scientific community specifically points to the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), an exclusive agreement for the energy sector that, to date, has allowed five energy majors to demand 4 billion euros from four countries for their decarbonization measures. .

These conclusions should force increased political pressure to act on the science and deliver urgent climate action to stay below 1.5°C of global warming. However, Ecologists in Action recalls that countries and previous climate negotiations have refused to accept the IPCC reports and nothing indicates that this will change, which in the organization's opinion eliminates all the credibility of the governments' speeches. in the COPs. The reality of the actions is that the international community ignores climate science and the obligations that arise from it. The European Union and the Spanish Government present objectives that are far from science. In the opinion of Ecologists in Action, they are complicit in an irresponsibility with very serious consequences.

The environmental organization considers that this IPCC report should be a “slap of reality” to the entire political class, a stop to the large fossil interests that use the climate fight to continue accumulating power, and that fuel wars and conflicts. human rights violations. The need to reduce energy consumption drastically in the coming years and leave fossil fuels in the ground is a call to global conscience to confront a systemic problem with deep social, economic, political and cultural roots. A response that is being given by numerous groups such as Scientific Rebellion, which has announced various actions this week.

Ecologistas en Acción affirms that there is no possible solution within an economic system based on unlimited growth, much less on continuing to support the energy transition in the same companies. The current situation in Ukraine has made clear the serious consequences of dependence on fossil fuels and the governments that current consumption is supporting. “The only possible solution is to prevent the conflict from being used to impose erroneous climate decisions and stop the urgent decarbonization of our societies,” stated the environmental organization.

For Ecologists in Action, the conclusions of the IPCC are an amendment to the totality of international climate inaction and a productivist economic system that predators life. This report is a new call to react because “it is already beginning to be too late”, which reinforces the organization's commitment to continue “in the streets, in the offices and in the courts together with all organizations, groups and people who continue to stand for a future in the face of the climate emergency.”