At the time of writing this reflection, it is still unknown whether the efforts of Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias to configure a left-wing government will be successful.
There only seems to be one alternative to make that dream possible, the active support (affirmative vote), or passive (abstention) of ERC and probably also of Bildu and BNG.
The other two possibilities would have devastating consequences for the left in the medium and long term. The first would be the involvement of the extreme right in a PSOE government, which logically would demand that it be a minority.
That would lead to a situation of instability, of harsh confrontation between the state and peripheral lefts with its consequent weakening, especially of socialism, which would suffer the erosion of the feeling of betrayal that would invade its social base.
That government would last just until the polls consolidated a turnaround, just at the moment that the extreme right would let the government fall to sweep new elections. The duration would not exceed the year of Pedro Sánchez's mandate.
The other alternative would be to go to new early elections that would most likely give victory to the sum of the three right-wing parties, which would have the same consequences as the previous one but much sooner.
Seeing the panorama like this, the left at the state level, PSOE and Podemos, have no other option than to add the rest of the peripheral left to their pact, plus a centrist and pragmatic party like the PNV.
The ground has already been sown after the first conversations-negotiations between socialists and ERC. This time the long shadow of the respective bosses, Pedro Sánchez and Oriol Junqueras, hangs over the negotiating teams where the absence of the previous protagonist on the part of the socialists Carmen Calvo is relevant.
What could his replacement by Adriana Lastra mean? Probably this time things are serious. That Sánchez wants to reach agreements, since Lastra has established herself in recent months as a firm defender of a left-wing government with the support of ERC and PNV.
This option is encountering strong pressure and resistance from within and outside the PSOE. Inside, certain barons, especially the presidents of Aragon Javier Lambán and of Castilla la Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, plus a whole group of former expired leaders, from Felipe González, to Alfonso Guerra, passing through the most right-wing and filthy part of the party. like Joaquín Leguina, or Francisco Vázquez.
It is curious that people who exercised power with an iron fist, not allowing a single dissidence during their mandate, now stand up against a decision that it is worth remembering was taken almost by acclamation in the recent consultation among the bases that obtained no less than a 97 % favorable votes.
It would be advisable to recommend to these gentlemen that before criticizing what Pedro Sánchez is doing, they spend a few seconds analyzing this devastating data.
But they are not the only pressures that are being suffered in this part of the shore, because the IBEX, the big banks, the employers and the internal and external de facto powers are using all their weapons, especially the media, to try to hinder the success of the negotiations.
That is on this shore, because on the other they also suffer the pressure of detractors, of those who foolishly, like the resident of Waterloo, consider that “the worse, the better.” That even with a radical right in the government of Spain it would be easier to achieve this chimera of the Republic of Catalonia.
The only thing left for Carles Puigdemont's enlightened man is to pronounce Churchill's famous words during the Second World War demanding “blood, sweat and tears” from his citizens.
The situation on the Catalan shore is complex to say the least, with a once again diabolical calendar, especially in this week we are entering. Next Thursday the 19th the European justice will have to decide on the appeal presented by Junqueras that could achieve his immunity, then during the weekend ERC holds its congress, which we must remember takes place in an assembly manner.
Also in the area of the old Convergence the waters run rough. There is a sector of their militancy and leaders of the old party who are beginning to consider Puigdemont and Torra as a burden that leads them to a dead end. The latest internal meetings are resulting in increasingly evident tensions and nothing can be ruled out in these circumstances.
They are beginning to fear that the possible PSOE- Podemos -ERC pact will end up removing them from power, if in the next regional elections in Catalonia the numbers go to that tripartite party. It does not seem possible that this will be the case with an increasingly solid Pere Aragonés at the helm.
This whole panorama leads us to a final reflection.
This country (whatever you want here) is going to have to face three fundamental challenges in the coming years, plus another at a global level.
On the one hand, to consolidate a left-wing government that works to recover the Welfare State weakened by the crisis since 2008. An enormous amount of work to strengthen the public sector, education, health, social services, an improvement in employment, not only in in terms of number but also in terms of quality.
The second challenge will be to face the crisis, or mini crisis that they announce is coming to us from that point of view. Demonstrate that with a left-wing government things can be dealt with better, especially for the most disadvantaged layers of society and also for the crushed middle class, than the right did with Rajoy at the head in the previous one.
Finally, perhaps the most difficult challenge. That just as José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero managed to ensure that his mandate brought us peace, or at least that he left the landing strip built and ready for it, this is the legislature that solves the old center-periphery tensions inherited from the First Transition .
And pointing out the I makes sense if we are capable, as the current situation cries out for, of being ambitious and facing a II this time led by the left.
That at the end of the legislature, not even the mother who gave birth to him knows this country, parodying Alfonso Guerra, that at least we build the foundations to take it to a Plurinational Federal State from the consideration that we are a nation of nations. Building a solid building, a “common house”, where everyone, Basque, Catalan, Galician, or Madrid, feels comfortable.
Is it an ambitious challenge?
Of course, but now that the current political class is criticized so much, remembering the one we were lucky to have during the First Transition, it would be a perfect way to vindicate ourselves and go down in history as solid and principled people, who at one time difficult they were able to solve the problems of this country through courage, audacity and generosity.
To do this we need to resolve some unknowns. In this period will we have the Pedro Sánchez who was victorious in his second primaries, or the one who agreed with Cs and constantly looked at the PP? Will Pablo Iglesias be sensible and generous in recent weeks, or arrogant from a few months ago?
Will the Junqueras and Rufián who agreed with Torra that the right-wing should not be allowed access to power and for this reason Sánchez should be supported, or will those of recent days who, cowed by JuntsPerCat, be reluctant to do so? Will the more sensible and pragmatic Otegi appear, or the messianic and outdated one?
The future of the country depends on the answers to these questions, or it would be better to say the countries that make up this beautiful, rich and plural nation of nations.
We will see………….
Signed: José Luis Úriz Iglesias (Former parliamentarian and councilor of the PSN-PSOE)
Note: Opinion is a DLVradio space, where several people leave their opinion regarding current events and it does not always have to coincide with our editorial line.
